Nuclear energy worldwide in decline
Nuclear Monitor #919
Gerard Brinkman, WISE Netherlands
Last week, the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report was published. This report lists the most important nuclear developments. As in previous editions, the main conclusion of this 2024 edition is that nuclear energy is further declining in global electricity production. Its share has fallen to 9.1%. Solar and wind are much cheaper and are taking off.
In 1996, nuclear power plants produced at their maximum. The share of nuclear power was at its highest worldwide in that year, at 17.5%.
Last year, nuclear energy’s share in the global electricity mix was still 9.2%. The big question is of course what is causing the decline. The most important thing is that the number of operating nuclear power plants remains the same, while more and more electricity is gradually being used in the world.
Since 1990, the number of nuclear power plants has fluctuated at just over 400. Although new nuclear power plants are being connected, approximately the same number are being shut down. This is clearly visible in the balance below.
Since around 1990, the blue line (new nuclear power plants) and the brown line (closures) have been in balance. The only sharp exception is 2012, when Japan closed its nuclear power plants as a precaution after the Fukushima disaster. In the first half of 2024 (the rightmost column), more nuclear power plants will have been added than closed. Whether this will herald a nuclear renaissance is still very much the question. According to figures from the IAEA, the current figure (September 2024) is 4 new and 2 closed.
That many new nuclear power plants are being built is at least a myth. Since 2010, the number of nuclear power plants under construction has fluctuated around 60.
The long construction time of nuclear reactors remains problematic. The average time from start of construction to grid connection for the five reactors started up in 2023 was 14.9 years, on average almost six years longer than the construction times of units started up in 2022 (9 years).
The nuclear renaissance is also not yet visible in the investments in nuclear energy. While there is growing investment in new solar and wind parks, nuclear energy remains a marginal phenomenon.
An important aspect lies in the cost development. Lazard, a renowned agency that analyses and advises investors, calculates the costs per MWh each year and determines that solar power has become 83% cheaper compared to 2009, wind on land 63% cheaper and nuclear energy has become 49% more expensive. Investors simply do not like higher costs. The graph shows that due to higher costs and inflation, solar and wind have also increased in price in recent years.
The result of all these investments is that the production of sustainable energy is growing strongly worldwide and nuclear energy is stagnating.
China
There is still a major misconception about China. The image that persists is that nuclear power plants in China are being connected to the grid on a regular basis. But what is happening there is that the share of renewable energy is increasing dramatically.
Nuclear power generation is increasing steadily, but the growth of solar and wind is particularly spectacular.
Small Modular Reactors
While a number of countries see SMRs as the future of nuclear power, experience so far suggests otherwise. The few existing cost estimates all show that SMRs will be more expensive per unit of installed capacity than large reactors.
In the WNISR report, the authors quote a top executive from the American NuScale, a major player in the SMR market.
“During a conference call announcing the termination of the UAMPS project in November 2023, NuScale’s Chief Executive Officer explained the decision by saying: “Once you’re on a dead horse, you dismount quickly. That’s where we are here.” The metaphor of dismounting from a dead horse might be a fit for other efforts to promote SMRs.”
Conclusion
The report shows that the nuclear renaissance is not happening: the big change is in the increase of solar & wind, while the share of nuclear energy is actually decreasing.
