Nuclear Monitor #941

Wen Bo

On July 15, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi informed Finnish President Alexander Stubb that China would not permit Russia to use nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war. This statement might have come as a surprise to many, given China’s previous policy of appeasement toward Russia since the beginning of the war.

Nevertheless, China’s stance on the use of nuclear weapons has remained consistent. In 2022, after Russia ordered its nuclear weapons to be placed on high alert, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that “nuclear wars must not be fought” in order to prevent a nuclear crisis in Eurasia.

China views the use of nuclear weapons by Russia as a significant escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and maintains that no side can emerge victorious from a nuclear conflict.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances and China’s Position

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine inherited one-third of its nuclear arsenal, making it the world’s third-largest nuclear power. The country also acquired critical design and production methods and tools, as well as 1,700 warheads. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy these weapons and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on December 5.

On that same day, Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. This document states that the signatories will not use or threaten military force against Ukraine’s territorial integrity or political independence.

China did not sign the main document because it was not involved in the negotiations. However, through separate governmental statements, China provided security assurances regarding Ukraine’s denuclearization and nonuse of nuclear weapons. In a joint statement signed in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, China pledged “to provide Ukraine with security assurances in the event of an invasion involving nuclear weapons or a threat of nuclear invasion.”

In 2014, Russia broke the Budapest agreement by annexing Crimea. China does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and maintains its official position that Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

Russia’s Nuclear Threat Rings a Familiar Bell

Following Joseph Stalin’s death in 1953, Chinese leader Mao Zedong and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev began to have serious ideological disputes. The Soviet Union cut off its assistance to China, including to its nascent nuclear weapons program. Nevertheless, China successfully tested its own nuclear bomb in 1964.

In March 1969, deadly clashes broke out between Soviet and Chinese troops over Zhenbao Island on the Ussuri River. Hardliners in Moscow suggested launching a tactical nuclear strike against Chinese cities and nuclear targets, including Lop Nur in Xinjiang.

Upon learning of the Soviet plan, President Richard Nixon and his national security advisor, Dr. Henry Kissinger, concluded that a Soviet nuclear attack would be unacceptable. The Nixon administration revealed the Soviet plan by leaking it to the media. In October 1969, meanwhile, the U.S. military conducted Operation Giant Lance, placing its nuclear forces on alert. American strategic bombers carrying nuclear weapons flew toward Soviet airspace to warn Moscow that the U.S. would retaliate if a nuclear weapon were used on China. As a result, the Soviet Union backed down from its nuclear option.

The latest Russia’s nuclear threat against Ukraine was reminiscent of the historical crisis, as the Soviet potential nuclear attack on China is still vividly remembered. While the U.S. was seen as a savior in 1969 for preventing a nuclear war with China, China would like to see itself in the U.S.’s position then. This would help restore China’s moral standing after its earlier failure to openly condemn Russia’s illegal and ill-fated aggression.

Wen Bo founded Greenpeace Beijing office in 2001; and served as China Coordinator for Global Greengrants Fund to support environmental groups in China, Korea and Japan.