Nuclear Monitor #935

Rolf Lindahl, Climate and Energy Campaigner, Greenpeace

The Swedish nuclear illusion: A cautionary tale of mining, subsidies, and environmental decay

The right-wing populist Swedish government has steered the country – once a pioneer on a clear path toward 100% renewables – into a deeply precarious nuclear adventure. As investments in renewable energy grind to a halt, opportunists are flocking to the nuclear sector, lured by the promise of favourable state loans and massive subsidies. This shift reached a tipping point at the turn of the year when the long-standing ban on uranium mining was lifted. However, local resistance is surging. The question now is: will the growing protests against uranium mines derail the government’s entire nuclear project?

From green leadership to ideological dogma

Since taking power in 2022 with the support of the national-conservative Sweden Democrats, the government has made new nuclear power its flagship issue. By exploiting the 2022 energy price spike, they sold a simplistic, “energy-populist” agenda, promising quick fixes. With pledges of new reactors by the early 2030s and the equivalent of ten large-scale reactors by 2045, the so-called “Tidö Government” has created an illusion that it seems to believe in itself.

In just a few years, they have completely redrawn Sweden’s energy map – not through market solutions or innovation, but through an ideological crusade where nuclear power has become a religious dogma. Through massive subsidies – taxpayer money that will bind future generations for decades – they are attempting to artificially resuscitate a technology that market actors long ago dismissed as too expensive and too risky. The suggested subsidies could be one of the largest and most long-term financial support measures for individual companies in Swedish history, and have been met with widespread criticism from businesses, academia and government agencies.

Nature as an “administrative detail”

The expansion is aggressive. The government is opening the entire Swedish coastline to nuclear development, regardless of local opinion or ecological value. The most chilling example is at the nuclear power plant of Ringhals, where the state-owned utility Vattenfall, cheered on by the government, has applied to dissolve established nature reserves to make room for new reactors. The message is clear: in the “new” Sweden, protected nature is merely an administrative detail to be erased with a pen stroke if it obstructs nuclear expansion.

While the government dreams of reactors that – if they materialise at all – won’t be ready until at best the late 2030s, the immediate consequences are devastating. Investment in renewables has not just slowed; in some sectors, it has imploded. Capital is fleeing the fast, efficient solutions we need today, scared off by the market distortion of one-sided nuclear subsidies.

The result is as paradoxical as it is predictable: emissions are rising, breaking a downward trend held since the early 2000s. By actively sabotaging wind power and dismantling green incentives, the government has trapped Sweden in a waiting room. We are waiting for a nuclear mirage while the planet burns and Swedish competitiveness in environmental technology withers away.

The uranium gamble

One of the most controversial moves is the decision to turn Sweden into a “nuclear Eldorado” by lifting the ban on uranium mining as of January 1, 2026. This decision was made despite significant environmental objections. On the other hand, the mining industry was quick to welcome the lifting of the ban. ‘This will make Sweden more attractive as a mining nation,’ said the CEO of the industry association, Svemin, in a statement.

Sweden is estimated to hold roughly 27% of the known uranium deposits in Europe, primarily in alum shale. The government justifies mining as a way to reduce dependence on external suppliers.

“With this decision, we can improve Sweden’s and Europe’s energy independence and secure our self-sufficiency in critical minerals,” stated Mats Green, spokesperson for the leading governing party, the Moderates.

In 2018, the then red-green government introduced a ban on uranium mining. The ban has been a thorn in the side not only of the current nuclear power-promoting government, but also of the companies that have long been most active in prospecting for uranium deposits in Sweden. Sveriges Television (SVT) has reported that the Australian company Aura Energy and the Canadian company District Metals have been conducting a systematic lobbying campaign to try to influence the government to lift the ban as soon as possible.

In a direct consequence of the removal of the uranium ban, Aura Energy supplemented its previous application to mine vanadium to also include uranium. They were evidently prepared. The application was submitted just over a week after the new regulations were introduced.

A weak economic case

Despite the rhetoric, the ambition to open uranium mines may be a hollow hope.

• Low Concentration: While mines in Canada boast concentrations of 20% uranium or more, Swedish alum shale contains a mere 0.01% to 0.04%. To extract one kilo of uranium in Sweden, you must process 500 to 2,000 times more rock than in Canada.

• The Ghost of Ranstad: In the 1960s, the Ranstad plant attempted uranium extraction. It was a financial disaster. The cleanup cost taxpayers hundreds of millions SEK and took decades. Ultimately, the cost of production was ten times the market price.

• Environmental Rigour: Sweden’s environmental laws are among the world’s strictest. At the same time, the environmental risks of mining uranium from alum shale are clearly established. The technical requirements to prevent acidic runoff from alum shale in 2026 are so advanced that they may render any project commercially unviable.

Political and local backlash

The political ground is shifting. The ban was lifted by the narrowest possible margin – a single vote. With the opposition Social Democrats (polling at over 30%) vowing to fight the move, any investment today faces a massive “stroke-of-the-pen” risk. Who dares to invest billions in a mine that a new government might shut down in two years?

Perhaps most importantly, the local resistance has woken up. While “new nuclear” was a winning slogan in 2022, the reality of uranium mines in people’s backyards is a different story. The government’s attempt to override local municipal vetoes sparked such an outcry – even from their own local representatives – that they were forced to retreat. “There is a lack of public legitimacy because it has not been possible to demonstrate that alum shale can be mined in a way that does not pose a significant risk”, says Ebba Busch, Minister for Energy, Business and Industry.

New nuclear power was the current government’s winning ticket. Now, it threatens to be their anchor. The once-popular nuclear dream is being tarnished, not just by the risk of an accident, radioactive waste or massive debt, but by the stubborn, grassroots resistance of people defending their land. Lifting the uranium ban may be the strategic blunder that brings the government down – and their grand nuclear project with it.