Nuclear Monitor #919
Jan Haverkamp, WISE
Since 2019, there is a relentless lobby in the Netherlands for more nuclear power.[1] During the record long coalition negotiations for the 2022 established centre-right government in the Netherlands, the conservative liberal VVD with support from the Christian Democrat CDA demanded an active nuclear policy. This included a lifetime extension of the oldest nuclear power plant in the EU, Borssele, after its initial closure date at 60 years of operation in 2033, two new large nuclear reactors and support for SMRs. During its tenure, the initially nuclear-sceptic progressive liberal (D66) climate minister Rob Jetten adapted to this situation. He started procedures in all three fields and set up a special department for the development of nuclear energy within the Ministry of Economic Affairs. At the end of his period as minister, this department counted around 45 employees, the EIA procedures for lifetime extension of Borssele was started, and Westinghouse, EdF and KHNP/KEPCO had received funds to carry out a feasibility study for two of their nuclear reactors, to be published in November 2024. He also established a special fund of 5 Bln Euro until 2030 for facilitation of this new nuclear policy, as part of the 35 Bln Euro climate package of that government.
Early elections because of migration policy in November 2023 led to more extreme right-wing government in June 2024. In the run-up to the formation of that government, the VVD demanded not two but four new reactors and another 9,5 Bln Euro for the construction of new nuclear power stations.
What does this mean for the development of nuclear energy in the Netherlands?
Cost studies adapted to new pro-nuclear policies
Over the last five years, it has become increasingly clear that nuclear energy is not a cheap solution for the country. A first scenario-studies[2] in 2020 to include more nuclear into the power-mix showed that this would inevitably lead to higher costs of decarbonisation. Because this did not fit the VVD narrative, the Minister of Economy quickly ordered a new, rather vague study from ENCO in Vienna, but written by a former director of the Borssele nuclear power plant, claiming that including nuclear would be cheaper.[3] The new 2022 government then initiated several other studies to back up the claim that new nuclear could be done. An initial scenario study by technical consultancy TNO in 2022[4] took up 5 GW of nuclear power in one of its runs, the TRANSFORM model, but under the assumption that nuclear capacity would deliver base-load (preferential operation 24/7) and under relatively optimistic cost assumptions for nuclear and relatively pessimistic for renewables. The 2024 update of this study[5] takes up nuclear in both its scenario’s and comes to the conclusion that not taking up nuclear would be possible, but against increasing costs. With high nuclear load factors (for TRANSFORM 90% and higher) and low-end construction cost estimates (7000 Euro/kWe), this conclusion seems to be somewhat under strain.
An economic assessment made in 2022 by Witteveen & Bos also comes to the conclusion that if new nuclear capacity can be built under extremely optimistic cost assumptions (CAPEX 4100 Euro/kWe for large reactors, base-load use; 2700 Euro/kWe for SMR’s) inclusion of nuclear would lead to a slight cost advantage of 0,8%, be it within the margin of error.
Siting and increasing resistance
In the meantime, Climate Minister Jetten indicated that Borssele would be the preferred location for two new nuclear reactors. This was based on the expectation that there would be a large support for such a project in the region. This, however, appeared to be a lot more complex. The announcement was met with the founding of Borsele tot de kern,[6] a local resistance group, and Stroom naar de Toekomst,[7] a regional one, and also the regional environmental federation ZMF[8] voiced criticism. The municipality of Borsele then set up a citizen’s forum of 100 randomly chosen citizens who formulated criteria that new nuclear projects would have to fulfil. Also the Province of Zeeland set up a list of (more regional) criteria. The Minister then pleaded he would take these criteria as much as possible into account, without making any promises.[9]
The government reacted by intensifying its information focus on the province of Zeeland. The nuclear department at the Ministry of Economy and Climate set up a dedicated website[10] and opened once a week an information centre Energy staffed by people from the Ministry, grid operator TenneT, Hynetwork (the hydrogen daughter of the natural gas company Gasunie), the province and municipality.[11] The government also installed two special nuclear energy relation managers with citizens, one for the Borsele area and one for the potential alternative area at the Maasvlakte, West of Rotterdam.
Also plans popping up all around the country for SMRs are increasingly met by criticism – from national organisations like WISE, or from regional and local groups and political parties.
Procedures without zero-option
In the meantime, several planning procedures have started. This includes the scoping phase for the EIA for lifetime extension of Borssele, the adoption of a national energy plan (including a strategic environmental assessment), and the preparation for a financing plan for new nuclear power stations. What is remarkable is that those procedures exclude the so-called zero-option – an energy policy phasing out nuclear power. The argumentation so far has been, that the decision for lifetime extension of Borssele and new nuclear capacity was taken in the coalition agreement of 2022, but that is not a decision on which citizens can have much influence. Given the need for taking the zero-option into account under the obligations of public participation in the Aarhus Convention,[12] this may prove an obstacle for procedures further down the line (the EIA for Borssele, site specific EIA’s for new capacity, etc.).
Lifetime extension Borssele depending on feasibility and ownership
The owners of the current Borssele nuclear power plant, for 70% the province of Zeeland and several municipalities, are unwilling to carry the further risks, especially the financial ones, of the ageing reactor. They are now negotiating with the state for nationalisation of the power station.[13]
A turn to the right
The newly formed right-wing government has so far been rather silent on its nuclear plans, except for mentioning in its Agreement on Main Issues that it intends to continue the preparations for lifetime extension of Borssele and the construction of two new nuclear reactors, plus wanting two more reactors and investigating the possibilities for SMRs.[14] This follows the wishes from the VVD fraction in Parliament, the party that also set the new Minister for Climate and Green Growth, Sophie Hermans. It is likely that the Netherlands will become more active within the Nuclear Alliance, the group of pro-nuclear countries spearheaded by France and the Czech Republic in the EU.
[1] https://eu.boell.org/en/nuclear-lobby
[2] https://www.berenschot.nl/media/so0fvuic/systeemeffecten_van_nucleaire_centrales_in_klimaatneutrale_energiescenario_s_2050.pdf
[3] https://www.enco.eu/_files/ugd/083d85_6093f463583f4e968533777678bc20eb.pdf
[4] https://publications.tno.nl/publication/34639421/ik1neX/TNO-2022-klimaatneutraal.pdf (only available in Dutch)
[5] https://publications.tno.nl/publication/34642479/Acs6Uy/scheepers-2024-toekomst.pdf (only available in Dutch)
[6] https://www.borseletotdekern.nl/bladzijden/actueel.html
[7] https://stroomnaardetoekomst.nl/web/
[8] https://zmf.nl/nieuws/kernenergie-dat-kan-nee-moet-anders/
[9] https://www.omroepzeeland.nl/nieuws/16411170/zeeuwen-overhandigen-voorwaarden-kerncentrales-maar-minister-belooft-niets
[10] https://www.overkernenergie.nl/
[11] https://www.zeeland.nl/actueel/overige-agenda/infopunt-energie-zeeland-elke-week-op-donderdagmiddag-open-1300-tot-1700-uur
[12] https://unece.org/environment-policy/public-participation/aarhus-convention/text, art. 6(4) of the Convention stipulates early public participation when all options are open.
[13] https://www.overkernenergie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2024/06/04/rijksoverheid-start-verkennende-gesprekken-over-eigendom-kerncentrale-borssele
[14] https://www.kabinetsformatie2023.nl/binaries/kabinetsformatie/documenten/publicaties/2024/05/16/hoofdlijnenakkoord-tussen-de-fracties-van-pvv-vvd-nsc-en-bbb/20240515+Hoofdlijnenakkoord+PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB.pdf
