Nuclear Monitor #940

Wen Bo      

On August 11, 2026, the United States, Japan and 39 other nations issued a joint statement at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva demanding at least 24 hours’ advance notice before long-range missile and space vehicle launches.

Coincidentally, a few hours later North Korea fired a ballistic missile off its eastern coast. On July 6, China’s military test-fired an SLBM with a dummy warhead from a nuclear submarine into the open Pacific. Apparently, the statement in Geneva was intended to criticize Beijing for failing to adhere to standard notification practices.

The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC) came into force in November 2002. This includes a pre-launch notification mechanism. To date, 145 countries have participated in the HCOC. However, neither China nor North Korea have yet signed up to the HCOC.

Nevertheless, China provided advance notification to the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. China maintains that providing details and notification too early would be tantamount to disclosing its military secrets.

China’s Quest for Proper Recognition of Its Power 

The purpose of China launching the missile was to gain proper recognition of its power in the face of Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Taiwan. In particular, China wanted to warn Japan about the recent deployment of missiles by its Self-Defense Forces in southwestern Japan, and about its perceived “re-militarization”.

On October 31, 2025, Chinese President Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held their first face-to-face meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Apparently, the meeting failed to foster positive relations between the two leaders. As the first female prime minister, and someone often described as an ‘Iron Lady’, Prime Minister Takaichi was unsure how to interact with President Xi, who is accustomed to being treated with the utmost respect. Cultural, political and behavioral nuances may have complicated their impression of each other, thus bringing their personal relationship to the level of national politics. Furthermore, Prime Minister Takaichi’s right-leaning political viewpoint and her stance on Japan’s wartime history with China prompted the Chinese leadership to adopt a firmer position.

In contrast, the former female President of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, was far more adept at building trust with President Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan. President Park spoke fluent Chinese and showed due respect to President Xi by adopting a more Confucian manner. While Prime Minister Takaichi adopted a more direct, Western-style approach when confronting President Xi during the summit.

Shortly after the Takaichi-Xi summit in Korea, Takaichi remarked that Japan would not stand by if China were to attack Taiwan. Her comments provoked a strong reaction from China, which subsequently limited its exports of rare earths to Japan, ordered its airlines to cut Japan-bound flights, and banned Chinese tour groups from visiting Japan.

Due to ongoing territorial disputes between China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, Japan has chosen to ally with the Philippines. Japan supports the Philippines’ position in its territorial disputes with China and has transferred Japanese vessels to bolster the Philippines’ naval capabilities.

The Chinese government regards Japan’s support for Taiwan and the Philippines as highly unacceptable and resents Japan’s preparations for a potential regional conflict.

In early July, the Chinese and Russian navies conducted the Joint Sea 2026 naval exercise in Qingdao. Against this backdrop, China launched the ballistic missile. Although China had informed Japan of the launch in advance, Japan had requested that China cancel it. China ignored Japan’s request but later publicized it widely on social media.

China has not targeted the U.S. or Australia in past or present military drills. It is unimaginable that the Chinese top command would consider the U.S. or Australia to be legitimate military targets unless they had attacked China first.

China is also unlikely to use military force against Taiwan because the action could backfire, potentially destabilizing the Chinese Communist Party’s rule in mainland China. Recently, the Chinese government has softened its tone toward Taiwan, and China has resumed promoting cross-strait exchanges by allowing travel agencies in certain provinces to resume tour business to Taiwan.

South Pacific: Not a Weapon Testing Ground Any More

Some Western media portrayed China’s recent missile launch as a warning to the U.S. or to the most recent Australia-Fiji military pact, which was signed just days ago. However, given that American President Donald Trump just had a successful visit to China, it’s unlikely that the Chinese military would provoke the U.S. at this time. The Australia-Fiji military pact would not have triggered the Chinese military to react with an SLBM launch.

One thing is clear: the Chinese military lacks coordination with the country’s diplomatic missions in the South Pacific and lacks understanding of the region.

In the 20th century, the South Pacific bore the brunt of weapons testing by the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. Between 1946 and 1996, over 300 atomic and hydrogen bombs were detonated in the South Pacific, causing severe health crises and permanent environmental contamination. The United States alone conducted 67 tests on Bikini and Enewetak Atolls between 1946 and 1958, including the 1954 Castle Bravo hydrogen bomb blast, which was 1,100 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

From 1966 to 1996, France conducted roughly 181 nuclear tests at Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls, shifting from atmospheric to underground testing in 1975.

Radiation exposure has led to a high rate of cancer in local populations, and generational birth defects continue to occur. Coral reefs were pulverized and islands were permanently irradiated. There are ongoing concerns about radioactive leakage from containment structures, such as the Runit Dome in the Marshall Islands. Protest actions against nuclear testing in the South Pacific in the early 1970s led to the establishment of Greenpeace, which inspired an environmental movement in subsequent years.

On August 6, 1985, nations in the South Pacific signed the South Pacific Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty, also known as the Treaty of Rarotonga. The treaty established a nuclear weapon free zone in the South Pacific, prohibiting the use, testing, and possession of nuclear weapons within its borders. The treaty took effect on December 11, 1986.

France conducted its last nuclear test in the South Pacific on January 27, 1996, at the Fangataufa Atoll in French Polynesia. This underground nuclear test marked the end of France’s nuclear testing program in the region before it signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Since then, the South Pacific region has enjoyed a relatively peaceful period, except for ongoing ecological challenges such as rising sea levels, overfishing, coral bleaching, and the impact of pollution from sea and land mining, as well as the discharge of nuclear wastewater from Japan’s Fukushima.

While China claimed it was legitimate to launch its SLBM into the international waters of the South Pacific, it might not have understood that this action could stir up four decades of peaceful life for these island nations. The missile drop also reminded them of the pain and discrimination that South Pacific islanders experienced.

Liaoning Province: An Emerging Nuclear Coastline.

According to Chinese-language media reports, the missile was likely launched from a nuclear submarine in the Bohai Sea. However, Chinese authorities have not officially disclosed the exact launch site.

Dalian City, which borders both the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, has a nuclear submarine base on the Xiaopingdao coast. It is the most important base of its kind in northern China. This might explain why Dalian’s security agency was particularly sensitive when, over ten years ago, the US-based Waterkeeper Alliance funded a local environmental NGO to carry out coastal cleanup and marine conservation activities, possibly fearing that intelligence and data would be gathered.

There are also two nuclear power stations located in the Dalian administrative region: Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Station on the Bohai Sea coast and Zhuanghe Nuclear Power Station, whose construction was approved by China’s State Council on July 31, 2026.

Further north on the Bohai Sea coast sits China’s northernmost nuclear power station: Xudapu Nuclear Power Station.

The emission of warm water from Hongyanhe and future Xudapu nuclear power stations would potentially contribute to an increase in the water temperature of the Bohai Sea. In winter, this would result in the early melting of ice near Liaodong Bay, an important breeding site for the endangered Spotted seal. Zhuanghe Nuclear Power Station is also located near an important route on the East Asian-Australian flyway for migratory birds.

The Bohai Sea is an inland sea in China that foreign vessels cannot enter without permission. This makes it an ideal location for China to deploy its strategic naval forces.

A similar geographic area is the North Yellow Sea, which is located between China’s Liaoning Province and North Korea. Its semi-enclosed, shallow waters provide a sheltered environment for submarines, making the Yellow Sea a vital strategic sanctuary and forward operations hub for the Chinese navy’s North Sea Fleet.

Due to its proximity to North Korea, Liaoning Province has been impacted by several of North Korea’s nuclear tests. The Chinese government maintains a nuclear watch station in Liaoning Province to detect the radiation levels of North Korean nuclear activities and potential nuclear leakage from North Korean and Chinese nuclear facilities.

The National Nuclear Safety Administration operates the Northeast China Regional Office in Dalian to inspect and regulate nuclear safety in the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning.

As nuclear facilities and activities increase along Liaoning Province’s coasts, minimizing risks and ensuring human and ecological security would not only require strict regulations and monitoring efforts, but also modern thinking. In other words, nuclear, ecological and human security are all aspects of national as well as international security.

Wen Bo founded Greenpeace Beijing office, served as China Director for Pacific Environment and Program Director for Air and Water Conservation Fund of National Geographic Society.